On this special time-sensitive episode of Forward Guidance (filmed on June 16, 2022), Noel Smith describes his observations of the options market that indicate strong short-term buying pressure on the stock market. Specifically, Smith notes that options market makers are very long gamma at the $3,620 level of the S&P 500. This position will force market makers to buy as the market goes down to those levels. As the position nears its expiration at the end of June, these hedging activities will be amplified. Lastly, the real "fireworks" for the S&P 500 may start when the position finally expires at the end of the month - and most likely right after the July 4th weekend.
Convex Asset Management LLC emphasizes that investing in futures, options, and other derivatives involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you may sustain a significant loss, including a complete loss of your investment capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, and any investment strategy carries the risk of loss. Before investing, carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance. You should only invest funds that you can afford to lose and seek independent financial advice if you have any concerns or questions.
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